Agenda and minutes

Apologies were received from Cllr Kuldeep Lakhmana substitute Cllr Peter Curling.

None.

The minutes of 15 February 2012 were agreed as an accurate record.

All items were considered in Part 1.

The Policy Officer introduced a background report which provided information about changes in the population of Hillingdon.

Key points arising from the report included:

Population Data and Analysis

• Is derived from Census data (held every 10 years).  The most recent data available is from 2001. 2011 Census data will begin to be available from later in 2012. 
• The Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the Greater London Authority (GLA) use Census data for annual estimates of population and to make projections of population change. Most data relates to national and regional levels. Some data is available at borough level and further information is available for wards and other census geographies within borough boundaries. 
• The differences in the methodology used by ONS and GLA has meant there has been some variation in the data, particularly in projecting population change.
• Hillingdon (Council and NHS Hillingdon) produces and publishes a Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (JSNA) which includes population data and analysis and Hillingdon’s Local Economic Assessment which also includes demographic information. The following sources of information are used to provide this update for the Committee:

·                Office for National Statistics

·                Greater London Authority

·                Hillingdon Joint Strategic Needs Assessment

Limitations of the Data

• Census data becomes less useful over the ten year period between each census. To improve this data, projections based on census data are estimates are augmented by management information from council and other public services. 

Hillingdon’s Population 2010

• The Office for National Statistics (ONS) ‘mid-year estimates’ (2010) for Hillingdon show:
• There are 266,000 people estimated to be living in Hillingdon in 2010.The gender composition of the population in Hillingdon is 49% male, 51% female compared to  London: 49.7% male, 50.3% female.
• Hillingdon’s population has a slightly younger age profile when compared to London and nationally (Hillingdon: 0-15yrs 20.5%, 65+ 13%; London: 0-15yrs 19.6%, 65+ 11.5%; England / Wales; 0-15yrs 18.7%, 65+ 16.6%).

Hillingdon’s Population – Projections

• The projected population increase in Hillingdon between 2011 and 2031 is 18,400 persons, a rise of around 7%.
• Using GLA projections, the number of households in Hillingdon are forecast to rise from 106,800 in 2011 to 119,200 in 2031, an increase of 12,400 or 11.6%.  This increase in households is also accompanied by a prediction that the average household size in Hillingdon will be smaller.

Birth Rates

• The population changes in Hillingdon are mostly due to an increase in birth rates, with some increase from net migration.
•  The number of live births has risen in Hillingdon over the last five years, with record highs seen in 2006, 2007 and 2008. The 2008 figure was exceptionally high at 4,126 children (see chart below).

Age Structure

• Hillingdon is expected to have the highest increase in the population of children and the working age group from 2010 to 2015 compared to London and England averages. 

Population in Hillingdon Wards and Constituencies

• Distribution of the Hillingdon population within the 22 wards is fairly uniform
• Wards in the north of the borough have a higher proportion of older people than those  ...  view the full minutes text for item 14.

Nigel Minto, Head of Housing and Planning, London Councils attended the meeting and provided a presentation on population flows and the impact on housing services from a pan London perspective.

The following points were noted:

London Councils research

• Looked at the period between 2013 – 2016 and explored the implications for existing workless households in London of Universal Credit cap changes

• The research looked at over 200,000 Housing Benefit (HB) records in London from 12 Boroughs, used HB information from a further 12 boroughs.

• The sample covered over 70% of workless households to assess the impact of the cap in London

The London numbers - Findings

• Over 130,000 households were impacted by either London Housing Allowance (63,000) or UC (70,000) caps

• Two-thirds of those affected by UC cap face shortfall of over 10%

– One-in-six, face loss of over 30%

• The UC cap disproportionately impacts on larger families

– Over 40% of couples with three children face loss greater than 10%

• Average loss across London £105 per week

• The Levels of tenants moved into unaffordability ranged from 33% (Brent) to 10% (Lambeth)

• In Hillingdon 17,704 records assessed, 2,580 (15%) applicants were expected to find their homes unaffordable

• Hillingdon 28th out of 33 boroughs in terms of the extent that claimants will find their accommodation unaffordable

• Boroughs which have least affordability

near Hillingdon included:

– Hounslow (19%)

– Ealing (20%)

– Brent (33%)

Estimating the impact on boroughs

• Initial estimates suggest average of £306 (33%) per capita loss arising from inner London to outer London migration

• 25% of children live in overcrowded homes

• Full time child care on average £22,1100 pa

• Predicted to be 70,000 shortfall on school places in London

• As a result a significant number of people will find their existing housing is unaffordable and may be forced to move to find cheaper accommodation.
• As the housing costs increase, this will impact upon on living standards and additional money will be required to cover shortfalls in benefit.
• Some existing social tenants, especially those with larger families will not be able to cover their rent

In response to the 18 key questions cited in the review scoping report, the Committee were informed:

• What population flow is happening? – This was ongoing at the moment.

• Where is population flow happening? – Across London as a whole. This is not always a clear inner/outer London split.

• Who is moving? – A range of households but this will increasingly be larger households.

• Why are people moving?- Of their own choice to avoid the change in housing benefit/UC. To secure cheaper or more appropriate accommodation because they are being ‘moved’ by boroughs. Or

because their landlord is compelling them to move.

• Are large families adversely impacted? – Yes

• What is the impact of this population flow on housing

demand? At this stage it is too early to say  ...  view the full minutes text for item 15.

Members considered a copy of the latest Forward Plan covering March to May 2012.

Resolved –

1. That officers be requested to provide a briefing note on Cabinet Item Cabinet Item 668 - Contract Award: Framework Agreement for support planning and brokerage outside the meeting
2. That Cabinet Item 668 be discussed at the next meeting.

This is a standard item.

Resolved –

That the timetable of meetings and proposed work programme for 2011/12 be noted