The Policy Officer introduced a background
report which provided information about changes in
the population of Hillingdon.
Key points arising from the report included:
Population Data and Analysis
- Is
derived from Census data (held every 10 years). The most recent data available is from 2001. 2011
Census data will begin to be available from later in
2012.
- The
Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the Greater London
Authority (GLA) use Census data for annual estimates of population
and to make projections of population change. Most data relates to
national and regional levels. Some data is available at borough
level and further information is available for wards and other
census geographies within borough boundaries.
- The
differences in the methodology used by ONS and
GLA has meant there has been some variation in the data,
particularly in projecting population change.
- Hillingdon (Council and NHS Hillingdon) produces and publishes a
Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (JSNA) which includes population
data and analysis and Hillingdon’s Local Economic Assessment
which also includes demographic information. The following sources
of information are used to provide this update for the
Committee:
·
Office for National Statistics
·
Greater London Authority
·
Hillingdon Joint Strategic Needs
Assessment
Limitations of the Data
- Census
data becomes less useful over the ten year period between each
census. To improve this data, projections based on census data are
estimates are augmented by management information from council and
other public services.
Hillingdon’s Population 2010
- The
Office for National Statistics (ONS) ‘mid-year
estimates’ (2010) for Hillingdon show:
- There
are 266,000 people estimated to be living in Hillingdon in 2010.The
gender composition of the population in Hillingdon is 49% male, 51%
female compared to London: 49.7% male,
50.3% female.
- Hillingdon’s population has a slightly younger age profile
when compared to London and nationally (Hillingdon: 0-15yrs 20.5%,
65+ 13%; London: 0-15yrs 19.6%, 65+ 11.5%; England / Wales; 0-15yrs
18.7%, 65+ 16.6%).
Hillingdon’s Population – Projections
- The
projected population increase in Hillingdon between 2011 and 2031
is 18,400 persons, a rise of around 7%.
- Using
GLA projections, the number of households in
Hillingdon are forecast to rise from 106,800 in 2011 to
119,200 in 2031, an increase of 12,400 or 11.6%. This increase in households is also accompanied by
a prediction that the average household size in Hillingdon will be
smaller.
Birth
Rates
- The
population changes in Hillingdon are mostly due to an increase in
birth rates, with some increase from net migration.
- The number of live births has risen
in Hillingdon over the last five years, with record highs seen in
2006, 2007 and 2008. The 2008 figure was exceptionally high at
4,126 children (see chart below).
Age
Structure
- Hillingdon is expected to have the highest increase in the
population of children and the working age group from 2010 to 2015
compared to London and England averages.
Population in Hillingdon Wards and Constituencies
-
Distribution of the Hillingdon
population within the 22 wards is fairly uniform
- Wards
in the north of the borough have a higher proportion of older
people than those in the south
- Hillingdon’s total population is expected to increase from
262,243 in 2011 to 270,485 in 2016 (+ 3.1%) and to 274,339 by 2021
(+ 4.6%).
- Inward
migration - Based on GLA information, 2006
and 2010, more students and fewer workers have been entering the
borough.
West
London Housing Market
Assessment
- The
West London Housing Market AssessmentNovember 2010 found the
following:
·
At the national level, international migration has
overtaken natural change in driving population growth.
·
International migration into West London has been
high in the last five years, although this has been balanced by net
out-migration to the rest of the UK.
·
As the households that move to the region tend to be
younger than those that leave, migration has tended to lower the
average age in West London and indirectly increase the rate of
natural change, that is, births minus deaths.
·
Household size has been reducing at the same time as
the total population has been growing
·
The West London population rose by 10.5% from 1981
– 2007, from 1,459,500 to 1,612,300. This compares with a rise in population of 11% for
Greater London and 9.1% for England.
·
The age structure of West London shows far more
young adults and young families with children aged 0-4 years than
England and Wales.
·
The household structure of Greater London follows
from its slightly younger than average
population. In 2001, 22% of all households were comprised of a
single, non pensioner person, while 8% were lone parents. The
proportion of single non-pensioner households has decreased, while
the proportion of adult couple households has increased.
Demand for housing
- The
demand for housing is driven by the resident population and the
local labour market. There are
numerous characteristics of the resident population which may also
have an influence on the demand for housing. This includes age and household composition as
well the health and well-being characteristics of the
population.
Resolved –
- That the information be noted
- That officers be requested to provide further
information on:
I.
The differences between Office for National Statistics
and Greater London Authority population projections;
II.
The composition of the ‘Other’ category in
household type used in analysis of census data;
III.
Clarification of numbers of births in Hillingdon.
- see Appendix 1