Agenda item

The Policy Officer introduced a background report which provided information about changes in the population of Hillingdon.

Key points arising from the report included:

Population Data and Analysis

• Is derived from Census data (held every 10 years).  The most recent data available is from 2001. 2011 Census data will begin to be available from later in 2012. 
• The Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the Greater London Authority (GLA) use Census data for annual estimates of population and to make projections of population change. Most data relates to national and regional levels. Some data is available at borough level and further information is available for wards and other census geographies within borough boundaries. 
• The differences in the methodology used by ONS and GLA has meant there has been some variation in the data, particularly in projecting population change.
• Hillingdon (Council and NHS Hillingdon) produces and publishes a Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (JSNA) which includes population data and analysis and Hillingdon’s Local Economic Assessment which also includes demographic information. The following sources of information are used to provide this update for the Committee:

·                Office for National Statistics

·                Greater London Authority

·                Hillingdon Joint Strategic Needs Assessment

Limitations of the Data

• Census data becomes less useful over the ten year period between each census. To improve this data, projections based on census data are estimates are augmented by management information from council and other public services. 

Hillingdon’s Population 2010

• The Office for National Statistics (ONS) ‘mid-year estimates’ (2010) for Hillingdon show:
• There are 266,000 people estimated to be living in Hillingdon in 2010.The gender composition of the population in Hillingdon is 49% male, 51% female compared to  London: 49.7% male, 50.3% female.
• Hillingdon’s population has a slightly younger age profile when compared to London and nationally (Hillingdon: 0-15yrs 20.5%, 65+ 13%; London: 0-15yrs 19.6%, 65+ 11.5%; England / Wales; 0-15yrs 18.7%, 65+ 16.6%).

Hillingdon’s Population – Projections

• The projected population increase in Hillingdon between 2011 and 2031 is 18,400 persons, a rise of around 7%.
• Using GLA projections, the number of households in Hillingdon are forecast to rise from 106,800 in 2011 to 119,200 in 2031, an increase of 12,400 or 11.6%.  This increase in households is also accompanied by a prediction that the average household size in Hillingdon will be smaller.

Birth Rates

• The population changes in Hillingdon are mostly due to an increase in birth rates, with some increase from net migration.
•  The number of live births has risen in Hillingdon over the last five years, with record highs seen in 2006, 2007 and 2008. The 2008 figure was exceptionally high at 4,126 children (see chart below).

Age Structure

• Hillingdon is expected to have the highest increase in the population of children and the working age group from 2010 to 2015 compared to London and England averages. 

Population in Hillingdon Wards and Constituencies

• Distribution of the Hillingdon population within the 22 wards is fairly uniform
• Wards in the north of the borough have a higher proportion of older people than those in the south
• Hillingdon’s total population is expected to increase from 262,243 in 2011 to 270,485 in 2016 (+ 3.1%) and to 274,339 by 2021 (+ 4.6%). 
• Inward migration - Based on GLA information, 2006 and 2010, more students and fewer workers have been entering the borough.

West London Housing Market Assessment

• The West London Housing Market AssessmentNovember 2010 found the following:

·          At the national level, international migration has overtaken natural change in driving population growth.

·          International migration into West London has been high in the last five years, although this has been balanced by net out-migration to the rest of the UK.

·          As the households that move to the region tend to be younger than those that leave, migration has tended to lower the average age in West London and indirectly increase the rate of natural change, that is, births minus deaths.

·          Household size has been reducing at the same time as the total population has been growing

·          The West London population rose by 10.5% from 1981 – 2007, from 1,459,500 to 1,612,300.  This compares with a rise in population of 11% for Greater London and 9.1% for England.

·          The age structure of West London shows far more young adults and young families with children aged 0-4 years than England and Wales.

·          The household structure of Greater London follows from its slightly younger than average population. In 2001, 22% of all households were comprised of a single, non pensioner person, while 8% were lone parents. The proportion of single non-pensioner households has decreased, while the proportion of adult couple households has increased.

Demand for housing

• The demand for housing is driven by the resident population and the local labour market.   There are numerous characteristics of the resident population which may also have an influence on the demand for housing.  This includes age and household composition as well the health and well-being characteristics of the population.

Resolved –

1. That the information be noted
2. That officers be requested to provide further information on:

            I.          The differences between Office for National Statistics and Greater London Authority population projections;

          II.          The composition of the ‘Other’ category in household type used in analysis of census data;

        III.          Clarification of numbers of births in Hillingdon. - see Appendix 1