Agenda item

Nigel Minto, Head of Housing and Planning, London Councils attended the meeting and provided a presentation on population flows and the impact on housing services from a pan London perspective.

The following points were noted:

London Councils research

• Looked at the period between 2013 – 2016 and explored the implications for existing workless households in London of Universal Credit cap changes

• The research looked at over 200,000 Housing Benefit (HB) records in London from 12 Boroughs, used HB information from a further 12 boroughs.

• The sample covered over 70% of workless households to assess the impact of the cap in London

The London numbers - Findings

• Over 130,000 households were impacted by either London Housing Allowance (63,000) or UC (70,000) caps

• Two-thirds of those affected by UC cap face shortfall of over 10%

– One-in-six, face loss of over 30%

• The UC cap disproportionately impacts on larger families

– Over 40% of couples with three children face loss greater than 10%

• Average loss across London £105 per week

• The Levels of tenants moved into unaffordability ranged from 33% (Brent) to 10% (Lambeth)

• In Hillingdon 17,704 records assessed, 2,580 (15%) applicants were expected to find their homes unaffordable

• Hillingdon 28th out of 33 boroughs in terms of the extent that claimants will find their accommodation unaffordable

• Boroughs which have least affordability

near Hillingdon included:

– Hounslow (19%)

– Ealing (20%)

– Brent (33%)

Estimating the impact on boroughs

• Initial estimates suggest average of £306 (33%) per capita loss arising from inner London to outer London migration

• 25% of children live in overcrowded homes

• Full time child care on average £22,1100 pa

• Predicted to be 70,000 shortfall on school places in London

• As a result a significant number of people will find their existing housing is unaffordable and may be forced to move to find cheaper accommodation.
• As the housing costs increase, this will impact upon on living standards and additional money will be required to cover shortfalls in benefit.
• Some existing social tenants, especially those with larger families will not be able to cover their rent

In response to the 18 key questions cited in the review scoping report, the Committee were informed:

• What population flow is happening? – This was ongoing at the moment.

• Where is population flow happening? – Across London as a whole. This is not always a clear inner/outer London split.

• Who is moving? – A range of households but this will increasingly be larger households.

• Why are people moving?- Of their own choice to avoid the change in housing benefit/UC. To secure cheaper or more appropriate accommodation because they are being ‘moved’ by boroughs. Or

because their landlord is compelling them to move.

• Are large families adversely impacted? – Yes

• What is the impact of this population flow on housing

demand? At this stage it is too early to say – Housing demand in some areas will increase as a result of population flows.

• What is the impact on other council service such as

education and social care? Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea are seeing an impact on school numbers. Equally some outer London boroughs are seeing their school number increase.

• The impact of the welfare reforms? Welfare reform is central as a driver to this change, closing down lower cost supply in the private rented sector.

• Is homelessness increasing as a result? Yes, but the form of temporary accommodation is changing. Homeless applications accepted between October and December 2011 show a rise of 36% rise since the same time the previous year.

• In seven London boroughs, including Ealing, Bexley and Waltham Forest - the number of homeless households more than doubled over twelve months, with the biggest rise in Hounslow at 245%

• -Indirectly as a result of a decline in (cheaper) stock in the private rented sector, a situation potentially exacerbated by higher rents in some housing association homes

• Is the use of temporary accommodation increasing? 1680 people are in bed and breakfast. A 26% increase on first quarter of last year, when 1330 people were in Bed & Breakfast in London.

• Are other local authorities procuring properties in the borough? Evidence suggests this is the case. The majority of London boroughs are placing households in other boroughs

Is owner occupation decreasing? Total number of mortgage loans

increased by 22% between Q2 – Q3 2011. Average house prices

now £351k. Expectations that sales will remain buoyant. Average

income of borrowers was £59k. Median age 35 years old

• Is the private rented sector increasing? Yes, very variable, the issue is not overall but the price point that PRS is available.

• How is the private rented sector reacting?

• What is the impact on private rented sector rents? Overall

increasing overall average rent level is £2075 per month.

• Is there increased illegal eviction activity? Ministry of Justice evidence was not available. Evidence from other agencies confirms this is the case.

• Is there an Olympic factor? Waiting lists have increased by 30% in

the 5 Olympic boroughs.

• Is the affordable rent model impacting population flow? Yes and

will do so to an increasing extent.

Resolved –

1. That the information be noted